So what will President Pence be like? That’s the question we should be asking now. The one American voters should have asked themselves before last Tuesday.
It’s not that I expect President Trump to be assassinated in office - or while he’s still merely President-elect. Though in the land of the gun that clearly can’t be ruled out.
And while it’s entirely possible that his health may fail - at 70 he will be the oldest person ever to become US President – that can’t be assumed. Though Trump’s unnatural colouring, and his general demeanour, suggest to me someone who’s a prime candidate for a heart attack.
The FBI, who did so much to put him in office by smearing his opponent, can’t be expected to do anything to remove him. Probably.
The Republican Party, which he supposedly represents, is another matter.
Plenty of senior Republicans find Trump as repellent as most of the world does - though not necessarily for the same reasons. Those who distanced themselves from him when they thought he couldn’t win the presidency may now be racing to kiss his hand, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t plotting behind his back.
House Speaker Paul Ryan refused to share a campaign platform with Trump. He now credits the tycoon with “the most incredible political feat that I have seen in my lifetime”. Which is probably about right.
Ryan’s probably right, too, when he credits the Trump effect with enabling the Republicans to retain control of both chambers of Congress. He talks now of “working together”.
But Trump is anything but a conventional Republican. In fact, it’s hard to say he’s a conventional anything. Since he seems to change his mind every time he opens his mouth, it’s hard to know what he stands for. If anything. Especially as his relationship with the truth is somewhat rocky.
With the Democrats now out of power in Senate, House of Representatives and White House, you might think the Republicans can go ahead and do whatever they want. But what Trump wants may not be what the party wants. Indeed, if it is, he will very rapidly disappoint the masses who swept him to power. The last thing they want is more of the same domination by the big-business interests that have always pulled the Republican strings.
That leaves the Republicans in Congress as the only possible true opposition to the man they put in the Oval Office. Fur will fly – some of it of an improbably orange hue. Republicans who fear the man at the top could yet destroy the party he has twice quit – in 1999 and 2011 – may have an incentive to topple him.
But the real reason I predict Trump’s presidency will be short-lived is the man himself.
He has said in the past that he’s like a kid who loses interest in the toy he always wanted once he’s unwrapped it on Christmas Day.
Running for the presidency as the most unlikely candidate ever was a great game. One he probably never really expected to win. But will he really want the responsibility of actually doing the job? Maybe at first, but I suspect the novelty will wear off pretty darn fast.
Which is why we need to know something about Pence, who only got to be vice-president because he was the only vaguely leading Republican who was prepared to stand alongside the maverick outsider.
So what’s he like? In the succinct phrase of one of my American friends, “even worse than Trump”.
The election result has unleashed a nasty wave of racist, sexist and homophobic abuse across America. Rather like the Brexit vote here, it seems to have given bigots a sense of entitlement to behave in ways that have long been considered unacceptable.
And if – as has been seriously suggested – Trump was only pretending to be a complete bigot in order to win the vote, it would seem that Pence is the real thing. Except that he has spoken out against Trump’s “unconstitutional” proposal to ban Muslim immigrants.
Like Trump, he’s for gun ownership. Unlike Trump, he’s for military interference with the rest of the world, including “getting tough” with Russia.
He’s for cutting taxes, especially for big business, and against welfare. In that, as in so much else, he’s a far more typical Republican than Trump, who has already stepped back from scrapping every aspect of Barack Obama’s health care plan.
Possibly Pence’s most offensive act as Governor of Indiana was in denying women access to abortion services, even on health grounds.
Probably the greatest danger he would pose as Presidentis his denial of climate change and enthusiastic support of environmental destruction for cash gain. A madness he apparently shares with Trump.
This may be what revolution looks like, or it may just be that the Democrats screwed up in making the personification of Establishment complacency their candidate. There’s probably truth in both views.
Either way, whether it’s the dangerously unpredictable Trump or the perilously predictable Pence at the wheel, it’s going to be one heck of a bumpy ride.
It’s not that I expect President Trump to be assassinated in office - or while he’s still merely President-elect. Though in the land of the gun that clearly can’t be ruled out.
And while it’s entirely possible that his health may fail - at 70 he will be the oldest person ever to become US President – that can’t be assumed. Though Trump’s unnatural colouring, and his general demeanour, suggest to me someone who’s a prime candidate for a heart attack.
The FBI, who did so much to put him in office by smearing his opponent, can’t be expected to do anything to remove him. Probably.
The Republican Party, which he supposedly represents, is another matter.
Plenty of senior Republicans find Trump as repellent as most of the world does - though not necessarily for the same reasons. Those who distanced themselves from him when they thought he couldn’t win the presidency may now be racing to kiss his hand, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t plotting behind his back.
House Speaker Paul Ryan refused to share a campaign platform with Trump. He now credits the tycoon with “the most incredible political feat that I have seen in my lifetime”. Which is probably about right.
Ryan’s probably right, too, when he credits the Trump effect with enabling the Republicans to retain control of both chambers of Congress. He talks now of “working together”.
But Trump is anything but a conventional Republican. In fact, it’s hard to say he’s a conventional anything. Since he seems to change his mind every time he opens his mouth, it’s hard to know what he stands for. If anything. Especially as his relationship with the truth is somewhat rocky.
With the Democrats now out of power in Senate, House of Representatives and White House, you might think the Republicans can go ahead and do whatever they want. But what Trump wants may not be what the party wants. Indeed, if it is, he will very rapidly disappoint the masses who swept him to power. The last thing they want is more of the same domination by the big-business interests that have always pulled the Republican strings.
That leaves the Republicans in Congress as the only possible true opposition to the man they put in the Oval Office. Fur will fly – some of it of an improbably orange hue. Republicans who fear the man at the top could yet destroy the party he has twice quit – in 1999 and 2011 – may have an incentive to topple him.
But the real reason I predict Trump’s presidency will be short-lived is the man himself.
He has said in the past that he’s like a kid who loses interest in the toy he always wanted once he’s unwrapped it on Christmas Day.
Running for the presidency as the most unlikely candidate ever was a great game. One he probably never really expected to win. But will he really want the responsibility of actually doing the job? Maybe at first, but I suspect the novelty will wear off pretty darn fast.
Which is why we need to know something about Pence, who only got to be vice-president because he was the only vaguely leading Republican who was prepared to stand alongside the maverick outsider.
So what’s he like? In the succinct phrase of one of my American friends, “even worse than Trump”.
The election result has unleashed a nasty wave of racist, sexist and homophobic abuse across America. Rather like the Brexit vote here, it seems to have given bigots a sense of entitlement to behave in ways that have long been considered unacceptable.
And if – as has been seriously suggested – Trump was only pretending to be a complete bigot in order to win the vote, it would seem that Pence is the real thing. Except that he has spoken out against Trump’s “unconstitutional” proposal to ban Muslim immigrants.
Like Trump, he’s for gun ownership. Unlike Trump, he’s for military interference with the rest of the world, including “getting tough” with Russia.
He’s for cutting taxes, especially for big business, and against welfare. In that, as in so much else, he’s a far more typical Republican than Trump, who has already stepped back from scrapping every aspect of Barack Obama’s health care plan.
Possibly Pence’s most offensive act as Governor of Indiana was in denying women access to abortion services, even on health grounds.
Probably the greatest danger he would pose as Presidentis his denial of climate change and enthusiastic support of environmental destruction for cash gain. A madness he apparently shares with Trump.
This may be what revolution looks like, or it may just be that the Democrats screwed up in making the personification of Establishment complacency their candidate. There’s probably truth in both views.
Either way, whether it’s the dangerously unpredictable Trump or the perilously predictable Pence at the wheel, it’s going to be one heck of a bumpy ride.
RSS Feed
